Arbeitsuchend, aber (noch) nicht arbeitslos: Was kommt nach der Meldung?

In Germany, individuals whose employment relationship terminates have to register as job seekers three months in advance or in the case of later knowledge within three days. As no control group exists, it is currently not possible to analyse the effectiveness of this measure. A different, but also interesting question is how long it takes for job seekers to become unemployed or to take-up a new job. For those registering as job seekers in November 2012 and July 2013 this paper shows that 90 days after registering 60 percent (November) and 40 percent (July) of individuals became unemployed. An early registration three months ahead of the end of the employment relationship would most likely be possible for previously permanent workers with long seniority (and thus longer periods of notice), as well as for temporary workers. Permanent employees with long seniority account for only a small proportion of job search registrations. Temporary workers, however, account for more than a third of all registrations. Of the latter, 40 percent are still working for their previous employer five months after registration. For them, early registration probably did not affect their labour market prospects, but was responsible for binding caseworker capacities.