Das Zustands-Grenzpreisvektormodell zur simulativen Bewertung einer Investition in ein Biomasseheizkraftwerk auf dem unvollkommenen Kapitalmarkt unter Unsicherheit

The energy and climate package of the German Federal Government and the directive of the European Union to promote energy supply from renewable resources are aimed at increasing energy supply in form of renewable energy in Germany to 18% of gross energy consumption by the year 2020. As biomass will remain one of the most important renewable energy resources in Germany, in this paper we like to point out how a decision of advantageousness should be made comparing the installation of a decentralised regenerative electricity and heat supply to a classical centralised energy supply. In particular, the minimum heat sale price to be demanded by a heat plant operator over a certain period of time is at the centre of our considerations, since this issue has been dealt with only marginally in literature or current practice so far. In our paper it is made clear that the premises of the popular finance-theoretical methods - perfect, complete capital market with perfect competition - are inappropriate to serve economic decisions facing a real-world problem of a real-world medium-sized company, which is considering to switch from a centralised to a decentralised renewable energy supply. This valuation task can only be fulfilled using investment theory-based valuation methods. For this reason, we introduce the state marginal price vector model as an alternative valuation approach that considers both existing market imperfections and individual expectations of a specific decision-maker. To meet the requirements of real decision situations, the analysis is not only carried out under the assumption of quasi-certainty, but also under uncertainty. To pinpoint our key finding: If the range of annual heat sale prices to be demanded at least by a heat plant operator is below the corresponding range of gas prices, the intended investment in the renewable and decentralised electricity and heat supply is economically advantageous. Broadly speaking, if the gas price exceeds the decision value of the plant operator, he decides in favour of the renewable and decentralised electricity and heat supply.