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Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Author

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  • Iselin Medhaug

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich)

  • Martin B. Stolpe

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich)

  • Reto Knutti

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich)

Abstract

Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Iselin Medhaug & Martin B. Stolpe & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti, 2017. "Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’," Nature, Nature, vol. 545(7652), pages 41-47, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:545:y:2017:i:7652:d:10.1038_nature22315
    DOI: 10.1038/nature22315
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Temperature in the Iberian Peninsula: Trend, seasonality, and heterogeneity," Papers 2406.14145, arXiv.org.
    2. Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos & Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro & Claudio Antonio Rojo & Edison Luiz Leismann, 2022. "A Review of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Consensus: An Econometric Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model of Paleoclimate Series," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 9(3), pages 102-112, August.
    3. Mi-Kyung Sung & Soon-Il An & Jongsoo Shin & Jae-Heung Park & Young-Min Yang & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Minhee Chang, 2023. "Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. B. H. Samset & C. Zhou & J. S. Fuglestvedt & M. T. Lund & J. Marotzke & M. D. Zelinka, 2022. "Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. Jing Peng & Fuqiang Yang & Li Dan & Xiba Tang, 2022. "Estimation of China’s Contribution to Global Greening over the Past Three Decades," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Xiaoying Ouyang & Dongmei Chen & Shugui Zhou & Rui Zhang & Jinxin Yang & Guangcheng Hu & Youjun Dou & Qinhuo Liu, 2021. "A Slight Temperature Warming Trend Occurred over Lake Ontario from 2001 to 2018," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, November.
    7. Drieschova, Alena, 2021. "The social media revolution and shifts in the climate change discourse," Global Cooperation Research Papers 29, University of Duisburg-Essen, Käte Hamburger Kolleg / Centre for Global Cooperation Research (KHK/GCR21).

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