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No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Manfred Mudelsee

    (University of Leipzig
    Boston University)

  • Michael Börngen

    (University of Leipzig)

  • Gerd Tetzlaff

    (University of Leipzig)

  • Uwe Grünewald

    (Technical University Cottbus)

Abstract

Extreme river floods have been a substantial natural hazard in Europe over the past centuries1, and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle2, leading to an increased flood risk3,4. For the past few decades, however, observations from Europe1,5,6,7 do not show a clear increase in flood occurrence rate. Here we present longer-term records of winter and summer floods in two of the largest rivers in central Europe, the Elbe and Oder rivers. For the past 80 to 150 yr, we find a decrease in winter flood occurrence in both rivers, while summer floods show no trend, consistent with trends in extreme precipitation occurrence. The reduction in winter flood occurrence can partly be attributed to fewer events of strong freezing—following such events, breaking river ice at the end of the winter may function as a water barrier and enhance floods severely. Additionally, we detect significant long-term changes in flood occurrence rates in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and conclude that reductions in river length, construction of reservoirs and deforestation have had minor effects on flood frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Manfred Mudelsee & Michael Börngen & Gerd Tetzlaff & Uwe Grünewald, 2003. "No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6954), pages 166-169, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:425:y:2003:i:6954:d:10.1038_nature01928
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01928
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. V. Krysanova & Z. Kundzewicz & I. Pińskwar & A. Habeck, 2006. "Regional Socio-economic and Environmental Changes and their Impacts on Water Resources on Example of Odra and Elbe Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(4), pages 607-641, August.
    2. Pavel Raška, 2015. "Flood risk perception in Central-Eastern European members states of the EU: a review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 2163-2179, December.
    3. José Barredo, 2007. "Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 125-148, July.
    4. Zhan, Choujun & Cao, Weiwen & Fan, Junyu & Tse, C.K., 2018. "Impulse Weibull distribution for daily precipitation and climate change in China during 1961–2011," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 57-67.
    5. Zbigniew Kundzewicz & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Shinjiro Kanae, 2010. "River Floods in the Changing Climate—Observations and Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2633-2646, September.
    6. Neil Macdonald, 2012. "Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (Northern England) from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 901-923, February.
    7. Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Katalin Bódis & Peter Salamon & José Barredo, 2012. "Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 47-62, May.

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