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Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

Author

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  • Eric Post

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

  • Mads C. Forchhammer

    (University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate1 is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)2,3, which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather4. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions5. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Post & Mads C. Forchhammer, 2002. "Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 420(6912), pages 168-171, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:420:y:2002:i:6912:d:10.1038_nature01064
    DOI: 10.1038/nature01064
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbosa, A. Márcia & Real, Raimundo & Mario Vargas, J., 2009. "Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(5), pages 747-754.
    2. Lawrence W Sheppard & Emma J Defriez & Philip C Reid & Daniel C Reuman, 2019. "Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Daniel K Gibson-Reinemer & Frank J Rahel, 2015. "Inconsistent Range Shifts within Species Highlight Idiosyncratic Responses to Climate Warming," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Acevedo, Pelayo & Real, Raimundo, 2011. "Biogeographical differences between the two Capra pyrenaica subspecies, C. p. victoriae and C. p. hispanica, inhabiting the Iberian Peninsula: Implications for conservation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 814-823.

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