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Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Paul M. Thompson

    (University of Aberdeen, Lighthouse Field Station)

  • Janet C. Ollason

    (University of Aberdeen, Culterty Field Station, Newburgh
    Nether Ardgrain)

Abstract

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates1,2, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability3. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton4,5, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul M. Thompson & Janet C. Ollason, 2001. "Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6854), pages 417-420, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:413:y:2001:i:6854:d:10.1038_35096558
    DOI: 10.1038/35096558
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    Cited by:

    1. Helene Gomes & Luc Doyen & Fabian Blanchard & Adrien Lagarde, 2021. "Viable and ecosystem-based management for tropical small-scale fisheries facing climate change," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2021-24, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    2. Cuilleret, Mathieu & Doyen, Luc & Gomes, Hélène & Blanchard, Fabian, 2022. "Resilience management for coastal fisheries facing with global changes and uncertainties," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 634-656.
    3. Helene Gomes & Coralie Kersulec & Luc Doyen & Fabian Blanchard & Abdoul Cisse & Nicolas Sanz, 2020. "Climate warming vs ecological competition for marine tropical biodiversity and fisheries," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2020-13, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).

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