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Restoring credibility in carbon offsets through systematic ex post evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Delacote

    (AgroParisTech-INRAE, BETA
    Climate Economics Chair)

  • Sylvain Chabé-Ferret

    (INRAE, University of Toulouse Capitole
    Institute for Advanced Studies in Toulouse)

  • Anna Creti

    (Climate Economics Chair
    UMR LEDA)

  • Katharyn Duffy

    (Northern Arizona University)

  • Micah Elias

    (University of California, Berkeley
    Blue Forest)

  • Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño

    (University of Oxford)

  • Ben Filewod

    (Canadian Forest Service)

  • Ben Groom

    (University of Exeter Business School)

  • Andreas Kontoleon

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Gwenole LeVelly

    (Institut Agro)

  • Tara L’Horty

    (AgroParisTech-INRAE, BETA
    Climate Economics Chair)

  • Anouch Missirian

    (INRAE, University of Toulouse Capitole)

  • Thales A. P. West

    (Vrije University Amsterdam)

Abstract

A key factor undermining the credibility of carbon offsets is the evaluation of project baselines and their impact. The ex ante scenarios constructed by project developers in accordance with rules set by certification schemes have been challenged by ex post evaluations from scientists, who frequently document cases of credit allocations that overestimate the actual emission reductions. Increasing credibility requires methodologies that reliably measure project outcomes and prevent overcrediting—an objective that ex post evaluations may be well suited to achieve. We explore how systematic ex post evaluations could restore credibility to certification schemes in the voluntary carbon market.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Delacote & Sylvain Chabé-Ferret & Anna Creti & Katharyn Duffy & Micah Elias & Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño & Ben Filewod & Ben Groom & Andreas Kontoleon & Gwenole LeVelly & Tara L’Horty & Anouch , 2025. "Restoring credibility in carbon offsets through systematic ex post evaluation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 733-740, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:8:y:2025:i:7:d:10.1038_s41893-025-01589-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01589-7
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