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Restoring credibility in carbon offsets through systematic ex post evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Delacote

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Sylvain Chabé-Ferret

    (TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Anna Creti

    (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Katharyn Duffy

    (Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff])

  • Micah Elias

    (UC Berkeley - University of California [Berkeley] - UC - University of California)

  • Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño

    (University of Oxford)

  • Ben Filewod

    (Canadian Forest Service - CFS (CANADA))

  • Ben Groom

    (University of Exeter Business School - University of Exeter)

  • Andreas Kontoleon

    (CAM - University of Cambridge [UK])

  • Gwenole Levelly

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)

  • Tara L’horty

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Anouch Missirian

    (TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Thales West

    (VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam])

Abstract

A key factor undermining the credibility of carbon offsets is the evaluation of project baselines and their impact. The ex-ante scenarios constructed by project developers in accordance with rules set by certification schemes have been challenged by ex-post evaluations from scientists, who frequently document cases of credit allocations that overestimate the actual emission reductions. Increasing credibility requires methodologies that reliably measure project outcomes and prevent over-crediting – an objective that ex-post evaluations may be well suited to achieve. We explore how systematic ex-post evaluations could restore credibility to certification schemes in the voluntary carbon market (VCM).

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Delacote & Sylvain Chabé-Ferret & Anna Creti & Katharyn Duffy & Micah Elias & Alejandro Guizar-Coutiño & Ben Filewod & Ben Groom & Andreas Kontoleon & Gwenole Levelly & Tara L’horty & Anouch , 2025. "Restoring credibility in carbon offsets through systematic ex post evaluation," Post-Print hal-05142653, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05142653
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01589-7
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05142653v1
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