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Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew G. Burgess

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Amanda R. Carrico

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Steven D. Gaines

    (University of California Santa Barbara)

  • Alessandro Peri

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Steve Vanderheiden

    (University of Colorado Boulder
    University of Colorado Boulder)

Abstract

Developed democracies proliferated over the past two centuries during an unprecedented era of economic growth, which may be ending. Macroeconomic forecasts predict slowing growth throughout the twenty-first century for structural reasons such as ageing populations, shifts from goods to services, slowing innovation, and debt. Long-run effects of COVID-19 and climate change could further slow growth. Some sustainability scientists assert that slower growth, stagnation or de-growth is an environmental imperative, especially in developed countries. Whether slow growth is inevitable or planned, we argue that developed democracies should prepare for additional fiscal and social stress, some of which is already apparent. We call for a ‘guided civic revival’, including government and civic efforts aimed at reducing inequality, socially integrating diverse populations and building shared identities, increasing economic opportunity for youth, improving return on investment in taxation and public spending, strengthening formal democratic institutions and investing to improve non-economic drivers of subjective well-being.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew G. Burgess & Amanda R. Carrico & Steven D. Gaines & Alessandro Peri & Steve Vanderheiden, 2021. "Prepare developed democracies for long-run economic slowdowns," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 1608-1621, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:5:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1038_s41562-021-01229-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-021-01229-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonore Riitsalu & Rene Sulg & Henri Lindal & Marvi Remmik & Kristiina Vain, 2024. "From Security to Freedom— The Meaning of Financial Well-being Changes with Age," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 56-69, March.
    2. Koskimäki, Teemu, 2023. "Targeting socioeconomic transformations to achieve global sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Shumin Dong & Yuting Xue & Guixiu Ren & Kai Liu, 2022. "Urban Green Innovation Efficiency in China: Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.

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