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The connection between moral positions and moral arguments drives opinion change

Author

Listed:
  • Pontus Strimling

    (Institute for Futures Studies
    Stockholm University)

  • Irina Vartanova

    (Institute for Futures Studies)

  • Fredrik Jansson

    (Stockholm University
    Mälardalen University)

  • Kimmo Eriksson

    (Stockholm University
    Mälardalen University)

Abstract

Liberals and conservatives often take opposing positions on moral issues. But what makes a moral position liberal or conservative? Why does public opinion tend to become more liberal over time? And why does public opinion change especially fast on certain issues, such as gay rights? We offer an explanation based on how different positions connect with different kinds of moral arguments. Based on a formal model of opinion dynamics, we predicted that positions better connected to harm and fairness arguments will be more popular among liberals and will become more popular over time among liberals and conservatives. Finally, the speed of this trend will be faster the better the position connects to harm and fairness arguments. These predictions all held with high accuracy in 44 years of polling on moral opinions. The model explains the connection between ideology and moral opinions, and generates precise predictions for future opinion change.

Suggested Citation

  • Pontus Strimling & Irina Vartanova & Fredrik Jansson & Kimmo Eriksson, 2019. "The connection between moral positions and moral arguments drives opinion change," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 922-930, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nathum:v:3:y:2019:i:9:d:10.1038_s41562-019-0647-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41562-019-0647-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yongcheng & Yamaguchi, Keita & Wong, Yiik Diew, 2020. "The multivalent nexus of redevelopment and heritage conservation: A mixed-methods study of the site-level public consultation of urban development in Macao," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Ertör-Akyazi, Pinar & Akçay, Çağlar, 2021. "Moral intuitions predict pro-social behaviour in a climate commons game," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Nisbett, Nicole & Spaiser, Viktoria, 2022. "The Moral Power of Youth Climate Activists - Transforming International Climate Politics?," SocArXiv 5zsra, Center for Open Science.
    4. Andrew Buskell & Magnus Enquist & Fredrik Jansson, 2019. "A systems approach to cultural evolution," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.

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