IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v7y2016i1d10.1038_ncomms13676.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas R. Knutson

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • Rong Zhang

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • Larry W. Horowitz

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

Abstract

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models’ warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Knutson & Rong Zhang & Larry W. Horowitz, 2016. "Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms13676
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13676
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13676
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/ncomms13676?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Behnam Mirgol & Meisam Nazari & Mohammad Eteghadipour, 2020. "Modelling Climate Change Impact on Irrigation Water Requirement and Yield of Winter Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.), Barley ( Hordeum vulgare L.), and Fodder Maize ( Zea mays L.) in the Semi-Arid Qazvin," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Xiaoqing Shi & Tianling Qin & Hanjiang Nie & Baisha Weng & Shan He, 2019. "Changes in Major Global River Discharges Directed into the Ocean," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Ireneusz Cymes & Ewa Dragańska & Zbigniew Brodziński, 2022. "Potential Possibilities of Using Groundwater for Crop Irrigation in the Context of Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-14, May.
    4. J. Isaac Miller & Kyungsik Nam, 2019. "Dating Hiatuses: A Statistical Model of the Recent Slowdown in Global Warming – and the Next One," Working Papers 1903, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms13676. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.