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Dynamics of extinction debt across five taxonomic groups

Author

Listed:
  • John M. Halley

    (Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ioannina)

  • Nikolaos Monokrousos

    (Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ioannina)

  • Antonios D. Mazaris

    (School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

  • William D. Newmark

    (Natural History Museum of Utah, 301 Wakara Way, University of Utah)

  • Despoina Vokou

    (School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki)

Abstract

Species extinction following habitat loss is well documented. However, these extinctions do not happen immediately. The biodiversity surplus (extinction debt) declines with some delay through the process of relaxation. Estimating the time constants of relaxation, mainly the expected time to first extinction and the commonly used time for half the extinction debt to be paid off (half-life), is crucial for conservation purposes. Currently, there is no agreement on the rate of relaxation and the factors that it depends on. Here we find that half-life increases with area for all groups examined in a large meta-analysis of extinction data. A common pattern emerges if we use average number of individuals per species before habitat loss as an area index: for mammals, birds, reptiles and plants, the relationship has an exponent close to a half. We also find that the time to first determined extinction is short and increases slowly with area.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Halley & Nikolaos Monokrousos & Antonios D. Mazaris & William D. Newmark & Despoina Vokou, 2016. "Dynamics of extinction debt across five taxonomic groups," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms12283
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12283
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    Cited by:

    1. Drielsma, Michael J. & Love, Jamie & Williams, Kristen J. & Manion, Glenn & Saremi, Hanieh & Harwood, Tom & Robb, Janeen, 2017. "Bridging the gap between climate science and regional-scale biodiversity conservation in south-eastern Australia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 343-362.
    2. Rob Cooke & Ferran Sayol & Tobias Andermann & Tim M. Blackburn & Manuel J. Steinbauer & Alexandre Antonelli & Søren Faurby, 2023. "Undiscovered bird extinctions obscure the true magnitude of human-driven extinction waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Alistair G. Auffret & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2022. "Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Montague H C Neate-Clegg & Simon N Stuart & Devolent Mtui & Çağan H Şekercioğlu & William D Newmark, 2021. "Afrotropical montane birds experience upslope shifts and range contractions along a fragmented elevational gradient in response to global warming," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, March.

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