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Overemphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events

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  • Ji-Won Kim

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Jin-Yi Yu

    (University of California)

  • Baijun Tian

    (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Previous studies have emphasized the significance of a strong El Niño preceding La Niña (LN) in the formation of multi-year LN events due to the slow recharge-discharge ocean heat content process. However, observational analyses from 1900 to 2022 reveal that the majority (64%) of multi-year LN events did not necessitate a preceding strong El Niño to generate their second LN, suggesting an overemphasis on traditional views. Instead, here we show that a negative phase of the North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) during spring, when the first LN begins to decay, activates the mechanism responsible for triggering another LN and producing a multi-year event. The westward extension of the first LN’s cold anomalies, which interact directly with the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool, is highlighted as a crucial factor in the occurrence of a negative PMM. Additionally, the PMM mechanism can create a third LN, leading to triple-dip events.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji-Won Kim & Jin-Yi Yu & Baijun Tian, 2023. "Overemphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42373-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42373-5
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