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Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data

Author

Listed:
  • Jana Lasser

    (Graz University of Technology
    Complexity Science Hub Vienna)

  • Johannes Sorger

    (Complexity Science Hub Vienna)

  • Lukas Richter

    (Graz University of Technology
    Österreichische Agentur für Gesundheit und Ernährungssicherheit GmbH)

  • Stefan Thurner

    (Complexity Science Hub Vienna
    Medical University Vienna
    Santa Fe Institute)

  • Daniela Schmid

    (Österreichische Agentur für Gesundheit und Ernährungssicherheit GmbH)

  • Peter Klimek

    (Complexity Science Hub Vienna
    Medical University Vienna)

Abstract

We aim to identify those measures that effectively control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Austrian schools. Using cluster tracing data we calibrate an agent-based epidemiological model and consider situations where the B1.617.2 (delta) virus strain is dominant and parts of the population are vaccinated to quantify the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as room ventilation, reduction of class size, wearing of masks during lessons, vaccinations, and school entry testing by SARS-CoV2-antigen tests. In the data we find that 40% of all clusters involved no more than two cases, and 3% of the clusters only had more than 20 cases. The model shows that combinations of NPIs together with vaccinations are necessary to allow for a controlled opening of schools under sustained community transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. For plausible vaccination rates, primary (secondary) schools require a combination of at least two (three) of the above NPIs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jana Lasser & Johannes Sorger & Lukas Richter & Stefan Thurner & Daniela Schmid & Peter Klimek, 2022. "Assessing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 prevention measures in Austrian schools using agent-based simulations and cluster tracing data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28170-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28170-6
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