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Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave

Author

Listed:
  • James M. Trauer

    (Monash University)

  • Michael J. Lydeamore

    (Monash University
    Government of Victoria)

  • Gregory W. Dalton

    (Government of Victoria)

  • David Pilcher

    (Monash University)

  • Michael T. Meehan

    (James Cook University)

  • Emma S. McBryde

    (James Cook University)

  • Allen C. Cheng

    (Monash University
    Government of Victoria)

  • Brett Sutton

    (Government of Victoria)

  • Romain Ragonnet

    (Monash University)

Abstract

During 2020, Victoria was the Australian state hardest hit by COVID-19, but was successful in controlling its second wave through aggressive policy interventions. We calibrated a detailed compartmental model of Victoria’s second wave to multiple geographically-structured epidemic time-series indicators. We achieved a good fit overall and for individual health services through a combination of time-varying processes, including case detection, population mobility, school closures, physical distancing and face covering usage. Estimates of the risk of death in those aged ≥75 and of hospitalisation were higher than international estimates, reflecting concentration of cases in high-risk settings. We estimated significant effects for each of the calibrated time-varying processes, with estimates for the individual-level effect of physical distancing of 37.4% (95%CrI 7.2−56.4%) and of face coverings of 45.9% (95%CrI 32.9−55.6%). That the multi-faceted interventions led to the dramatic reversal in the epidemic trajectory is supported by our results, with face coverings likely particularly important.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Trauer & Michael J. Lydeamore & Gregory W. Dalton & David Pilcher & Michael T. Meehan & Emma S. McBryde & Allen C. Cheng & Brett Sutton & Romain Ragonnet, 2021. "Understanding how Victoria, Australia gained control of its second COVID-19 wave," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-26558-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-26558-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colin J. Carlson & Ana C. R. Gomez & Shweta Bansal & Sadie J. Ryan, 2020. "Misconceptions about weather and seasonality must not misguide COVID-19 response," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-4, December.
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