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Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Jochen Hinkel

    (Adaptation and Social Learning
    Humboldt-University)

  • Philip J. Ward

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Ignazio Mongelli

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Luc Feyen

    (Joint Research Centre (JRC))

Abstract

Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe’s coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe’s coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Jochen Hinkel & Philip J. Ward & Ignazio Mongelli & Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Luc Feyen, 2020. "Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15665-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Bachner & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Wang, Haoluan, 2021. "Flood Your Neighbors: Spillover Effects of Levee Building," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311091, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    3. Vincent T. M. Zelst & Jasper T. Dijkstra & Bregje K. Wesenbeeck & Dirk Eilander & Edward P. Morris & Hessel C. Winsemius & Philip J. Ward & Mindert B. Vries, 2021. "Cutting the costs of coastal protection by integrating vegetation in flood defences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Max Tesselaar & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Timothy Tiggeloven & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2023. "Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Sérgio Barreiros Proença & Francesca Dal Cin & Cristiana Valente Monteiro & Maria Inês Franco & Maria Matos Silva & Nawaf Saeed Al Mushayt, 2023. "The Urban Public Space between Land and Sea: The Case of Quarteira, Portugal," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Taberna, Alessandro & Filatova, Tatiana & Roventini, Andrea & Lamperti, Francesco, 2022. "Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Panagiotis Athanasiou & Alessio Giardino & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Alessandro Stocchino & Robert E. Kopp & Pelayo Menéndez & Michael W. Beck & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Luc Feyen, 2023. "Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1552-1564, December.

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