IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v11y2020i1d10.1038_s41467-020-15108-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen C. Maberly

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre)

  • Ruth A. O’Donnell

    (University of Glasgow)

  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk Institute of Technology)

  • Mark E. J. Cutler

    (University of Dundee)

  • Mengyi Gong

    (University of Glasgow
    British Geological Survey, Keyworth)

  • Ian D. Jones

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
    University of Stirling)

  • Christopher J. Merchant

    (University of Reading
    University of Reading)

  • Claire A. Miller

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Eirini Politi

    (University of Dundee)

  • E. Marian Scott

    (University of Glasgow)

  • Stephen J. Thackeray

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre)

  • Andrew N. Tyler

    (University of Stirling)

Abstract

Water temperature is critical for the ecology of lakes. However, the ability to predict its spatial and seasonal variation is constrained by the lack of a thermal classification system. Here we define lake thermal regions using objective analysis of seasonal surface temperature dynamics from satellite observations. Nine lake thermal regions are identified that mapped robustly and largely contiguously globally, even for small lakes. The regions differed from other global patterns, and so provide unique information. Using a lake model forced by 21st century climate projections, we found that 12%, 27% and 66% of lakes will change to a lower latitude thermal region by 2080–2099 for low, medium and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5) respectively. Under the worst-case scenario, a 79% reduction in the number of lakes in the northernmost thermal region is projected. This thermal region framework can facilitate the global scaling of lake-research.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen C. Maberly & Ruth A. O’Donnell & R. Iestyn Woolway & Mark E. J. Cutler & Mengyi Gong & Ian D. Jones & Christopher J. Merchant & Claire A. Miller & Eirini Politi & E. Marian Scott & Stephen J. , 2020. "Global lake thermal regions shift under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15108-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15108-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-020-15108-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gang Zhao & Yao Li & Liming Zhou & Huilin Gao, 2022. "Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Xinyu Li & Shushi Peng & Yi Xi & R. Iestyn Woolway & Gang Liu, 2022. "Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. R. Iestyn Woolway, 2023. "The pace of shifting seasons in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15108-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.