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Evapotranspiration depletes groundwater under warming over the contiguous United States

Author

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  • Laura E. Condon

    (Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona)

  • Adam L. Atchley

    (Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Lab, Los Alamos)

  • Reed M. Maxwell

    (Colorado School of Mines)

Abstract

A warmer climate increases evaporative demand. However, response to warming depends on water availability. Existing earth system models represent soil moisture but simplify groundwater connections, a primary control on soil moisture. Here we apply an integrated surface-groundwater hydrologic model to evaluate the sensitivity of shallow groundwater to warming across the majority of the US. We show that as warming shifts the balance between water supply and demand, shallow groundwater storage can buffer plant water stress; but only where shallow groundwater connections are present, and not indefinitely. As warming persists, storage can be depleted and connections lost. Similarly, in the arid western US warming does not result in significant groundwater changes because this area is already largely water limited. The direct response of shallow groundwater storage to warming demonstrates the strong and early effect that low to moderate warming may have on groundwater storage and evapotranspiration.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura E. Condon & Adam L. Atchley & Reed M. Maxwell, 2020. "Evapotranspiration depletes groundwater under warming over the contiguous United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-14688-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14688-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yi & Li, Bingbing & Shi, Peijun & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Assessing spatiotemporally varied ecohydrological effects of apple orchards based on regional-scale estimation of tree distribution and ages," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    2. Leonardo V. Noto & Giuseppe Cipolla & Antonio Francipane & Dario Pumo, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2287-2305, May.
    3. Li, Bingbing & Yang, Yi & Li, Zhi, 2021. "Combined effects of multiple factors on spatiotemporally varied soil moisture in China’s Loess Plateau," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    4. José Luis Uc Castillo & José Alfredo Ramos Leal & Diego Armando Martínez Cruz & Adrián Cervantes Martínez & Ana Elizabeth Marín Celestino, 2021. "Identification of the Dominant Factors in Groundwater Recharge Process, Using Multivariate Statistical Approaches in a Semi-Arid Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-21, October.

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