IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v11y2020i1d10.1038_s41467-019-14049-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Frederikse

    (California Institute of Technology
    Utrecht University)

  • Maya K. Buchanan

    (One Palmer Square)

  • Erwin Lambert

    (Utrecht University)

  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers University)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

  • D. J. Rasmussen

    (Princeton University)

  • Roderik S. W. van de Wal

    (Utrecht University
    Utrecht University)

Abstract

Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL changes at tide-gauge sites across the globe using extreme-value statistics. We find that even under RCP2.6, almost half of the sites could be exposed annually to a present-day 100-year ESL event by 2050. Most tropical sites face large increases in ESL events earlier and for scenarios with smaller MSL changes than extratropical sites. Strong emission reductions lower the probability of large ESL changes but due to AIS uncertainties, cannot fully eliminate the probability that large increases in frequencies of ESL events will occur. Under RCP8.5 and rapid AIS mass loss, many tropical sites, including low-lying islands face a MSL rise by 2100 that exceeds the present-day 100-year event level.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Frederikse & Maya K. Buchanan & Erwin Lambert & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & D. J. Rasmussen & Roderik S. W. van de Wal, 2020. "Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-14049-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-14049-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Costas Varotsos & Yuri Mazei & Elena Novenko & Andrey N. Tsyganov & Alexander Olchev & Tatiana Pampura & Natalia Mazei & Yulia Fatynina & Damir Saldaev & Maria Efstathiou, 2020. "A New Climate Nowcasting Tool Based on Paleoclimatic Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Pertierra, L.R. & Santos-Martin, F. & Hughes, K.A. & Avila, C. & Caceres, J.O. & De Filippo, D. & Gonzalez, S. & Grant, S.M. & Lynch, H. & Marina-Montes, C. & Quesada, A. & Tejedo, P. & Tin, T. & Bena, 2021. "Ecosystem services in Antarctica: Global assessment of the current state, future challenges and managing opportunities," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Marcello Basili & Federico Crudu, 2021. "Aggregation of Experts Opinions and the Assessment of Tipping Points. Catastrophic Forecasts for Higher Temperature Changes," Department of Economics University of Siena 868, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-14049-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.