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Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Bregje Bolt

    (Wageningen University)

  • Egbert H. Nes

    (Wageningen University)

  • Sebastian Bathiany

    (Wageningen University)

  • Marlies E. Vollebregt

    (Wageningen University)

  • Marten Scheffer

    (Wageningen University)

Abstract

Climate change research often focuses on trends in the mean and variance. However, analyses of palaeoclimatic and contemporary dynamics reveal that climate memory — as measured for instance by temporal autocorrelation — may also change substantially over time. Here, we show that elevated temporal autocorrelation in climatic variables should be expected to increase the chance of critical transitions in climate-sensitive systems with tipping points. We demonstrate that this prediction is consistent with evidence from forests, coral reefs, poverty traps, violent conflict and ice sheet instability. In each example, the duration of anomalous dry or warm events elevates chances of invoking a critical transition. Understanding the effects of climate variability thus requires research not only on variance, but also on climate memory.

Suggested Citation

  • Bregje Bolt & Egbert H. Nes & Sebastian Bathiany & Marlies E. Vollebregt & Marten Scheffer, 2018. "Climate reddening increases the chance of critical transitions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(6), pages 478-484, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0160-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0160-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Sundstrom, Shana M. & Angeler, David G. & Allen, Craig R., 2023. "Resilience theory and coerced resilience in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    2. , European Marine Board & Boero, Ferdinando & Cummins, Valerie & Gault, Jeremy & Huse, Geir & Philippart, Catharina & Schneider, Ralph & Besiktepe, Sukru & Boeuf, Gilles & Coll, Marta, 2019. "Navigating the Future V: Marine Science for a Sustainable Future," MarXiv vps62, Center for Open Science.
    3. Taylor Smith & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Tongbi Tu & Lise Comte & Albert Ruhi, 2023. "The color of environmental noise in river networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

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