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Climate-change impact assessment for inlet-interrupted coastlines

Author

Listed:
  • Roshanka Ranasinghe

    (UNESCO-IHE
    Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University of Delft
    Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering)

  • Trang Minh Duong

    (UNESCO-IHE
    Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering)

  • Stefan Uhlenbrook

    (UNESCO-IHE
    Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University of Delft)

  • Dano Roelvink

    (UNESCO-IHE
    Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University of Delft)

  • Marcel Stive

    (Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Technical University of Delft)

Abstract

Climate-change (CC)-driven sea-level rise (SLR) will result in coastline retreat due to landward movement of the coastal profile (that is, the Bruun effect). Coastline change adjacent to commonly found tidal inlets will be influenced not only by the Bruun effect, but also by SLR-driven basin infilling and CC-driven variations in rainfall/runoff. However, as a model that accounts for all of the above-mentioned processes has been lacking so far, most coastal CC impact studies until now have considered only the Bruun effect. Here, we present a scale-aggregated model capable of providing rapid assessments of coastline change adjacent to small inlet-estuary/lagoon systems due to the combined effect of CC-driven SLR and variations in rainfall/runoff. Model applications to four representative systems show that the Bruun effect represents only 25–50% of total potential coastline change, and underline the significance of coastline change due to SLR-driven basin infilling and CC-driven variations in rainfall/runoff.

Suggested Citation

  • Roshanka Ranasinghe & Trang Minh Duong & Stefan Uhlenbrook & Dano Roelvink & Marcel Stive, 2013. "Climate-change impact assessment for inlet-interrupted coastlines," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 83-87, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1038_nclimate1664
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1664
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    Cited by:

    1. Kathleen L. McInnes & Christopher J. White & Ivan D. Haigh & Mark A. Hemer & Ron K. Hoeke & Neil J. Holbrook & Anthony S. Kiem & Eric C. J. Oliver & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Seth West, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: sea level and coastal extremes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 69-83, November.
    2. Rafael Almar & Julien Boucharel & Marcan Graffin & Gregoire Ondoa Abessolo & Gregoire Thoumyre & Fabrice Papa & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Jennifer Montano & Erwin W. J. Bergsma & Mohamed Wassim Baba & Fei, 2023. "Influence of El Niño on the variability of global shoreline position," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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