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Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Quesada

    (LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers
    ARIA Technologies)

  • Robert Vautard

    (LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers)

  • Pascal Yiou

    (LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers)

  • Martin Hirschi

    (Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss
    ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science)

Abstract

Increased summer heatwaves are a likely feature of future European climate. This study shows that wet previous seasons inhibit summer heat events, thus increasing seasonal predictability, but dry previous seasons do not, therefore decreasing seasonal predictability. Models suggest that a similar relation should hold in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Quesada & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Martin Hirschi & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2012. "Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(10), pages 736-741, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:2:y:2012:i:10:d:10.1038_nclimate1536
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1536
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    Cited by:

    1. Auke M. Woude & Wouter Peters & Emilie Joetzjer & Sébastien Lafont & Gerbrand Koren & Philippe Ciais & Michel Ramonet & Yidi Xu & Ana Bastos & Santiago Botía & Stephen Sitch & Remco Kok & Tobias Kneue, 2023. "Temperature extremes of 2022 reduced carbon uptake by forests in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Sebastian Sippel & F Otto, 2014. "Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 381-398, August.
    3. M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro & Davide Faranda & Pascal Yiou, 2018. "Atmospheric Dynamics Leading to West European Summer Hot Temperatures Since 1851," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, January.
    4. Garrido-Perez, Jose M. & Ordóñez, Carlos & Barriopedro, David & García-Herrera, Ricardo & Paredes, Daniel, 2020. "Impact of weather regimes on wind power variability in western Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    5. Oliver Wetter & Christian Pfister & Johannes Werner & Eduardo Zorita & Sebastian Wagner & Sonia Seneviratne & Jürgen Herget & Uwe Grünewald & Jürg Luterbacher & Maria-Joao Alcoforado & Mariano Barrien, 2014. "The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 349-363, August.
    6. Marco Turco & Antonella Sanna & Sixto Herrera & Maria-Carmen Llasat & José Gutiérrez, 2013. "Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 859-869, October.
    7. S. E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick & C. J. White & L. V. Alexander & D. Argüeso & G. Boschat & T. Cowan & J. P. Evans & M. Ekström & E. C. J. Oliver & A. Phatak & A. Purich, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 101-114, November.

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