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Increase in MJO predictability under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Danni Du

    (University of Colorado)

  • Aneesh C. Subramanian

    (University of Colorado)

  • Weiqing Han

    (University of Colorado)

  • William E. Chapman

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Jeffrey B. Weiss

    (University of Colorado)

  • Elizabeth Bradley

    (University of Colorado
    Santa Fe Institute)

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant source of subseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropics and significantly impacts global weather and climate predictability. Changes in its activity and predictability due to human-induced global climate change have profound implications for future global weather prediction. Here we investigate changes in MJO predictability in reanalysis and climate model data and find that MJO predictability has increased over the past century. This increase can be attributed to anthropogenic warming and continues during the twenty-first century in projections. The increased predictability is accompanied by stronger MJO amplitude, more regular oscillation patterns and organized eastward propagation under global warming. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will increase the predictability of the MJO, with far-reaching consequences for global weather prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Danni Du & Aneesh C. Subramanian & Weiqing Han & William E. Chapman & Jeffrey B. Weiss & Elizabeth Bradley, 2024. "Increase in MJO predictability under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 68-74, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01885-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01885-0
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