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Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia

Author

Listed:
  • Richard E. Fewster

    (University of Leeds)

  • Paul J. Morris

    (University of Leeds)

  • Ruza F. Ivanovic

    (University of Leeds)

  • Graeme T. Swindles

    (Queen’s University Belfast
    Carleton University)

  • Anna M. Peregon

    (Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS)
    Tuvan State University)

  • Christopher J. Smith

    (University of Leeds
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard E. Fewster & Paul J. Morris & Ruza F. Ivanovic & Graeme T. Swindles & Anna M. Peregon & Christopher J. Smith, 2022. "Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(4), pages 373-379, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01296-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01296-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Claire Alestra & Gilbert Cette & Valérie Chouard & Rémy Lecat, 2023. "How can technology significantly contribute to climate change mitigation?," Working Papers hal-03924629, HAL.
    2. Kelly Wanser & Sarah J. Doherty & James W. Hurrell & Alex Wong, 2022. "Near-term climate risks and sunlight reflection modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-20, October.

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