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Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Author

Listed:
  • Xiuwen Guo

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Yang Gao

    (Ocean University of China
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP))

  • Shaoqing Zhang

    (Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
    Ocean University of China)

  • Lixin Wu

    (International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
    Ocean University of China)

  • Ping Chang

    (International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
    Texas A&M University)

  • Wenju Cai

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
    Ocean University of China and Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao))

  • Jakob Zscheischler

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ
    University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • L. Ruby Leung

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Justin Small

    (International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
    National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Gokhan Danabasoglu

    (International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
    National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Luanne Thompson

    (University of Washington)

  • Huiwang Gao

    (Ocean University of China)

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiuwen Guo & Yang Gao & Shaoqing Zhang & Lixin Wu & Ping Chang & Wenju Cai & Jakob Zscheischler & L. Ruby Leung & Justin Small & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Luanne Thompson & Huiwang Gao, 2022. "Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 179-186, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01266-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex S. J. Wyatt & James J. Leichter & Libe Washburn & Li Kui & Peter J. Edmunds & Scott C. Burgess, 2023. "Hidden heatwaves and severe coral bleaching linked to mesoscale eddies and thermocline dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.

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