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Maladaptation, migration and extirpation fuel climate change risk in a forest tree species

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew V. Gougherty

    (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
    University of British Columbia)

  • Stephen R. Keller

    (University of Vermont)

  • Matthew C. Fitzpatrick

    (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)

Abstract

Accounting for population-level adaptation and migration remains a central challenge to predicting climate change effects on biodiversity. Assessing how climate change could disrupt local climate adaptation, resulting in maladaptation and possibly extirpation, can inform where climate change poses the greatest risks across species ranges. For the forest tree species balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera), we used climate-associated genetic loci to predict population maladaptation with and without migration, the distance to sites that minimize maladaptation, and the emergence of novel genotype–climate associations. We show that the greatest disruptions to contemporary genotype–climate associations occur along the longitudinal edges of the range, where populations are predicted to be maladapted to all future North American climates, rescue via migration is most limited and novel genotype–climate associations emerge. Our work advances beyond species-level range modelling towards the long-held goal of simultaneously estimating the contributions of maladaptation and migration to understanding the risks that populations may face from shifting climates.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew V. Gougherty & Stephen R. Keller & Matthew C. Fitzpatrick, 2021. "Maladaptation, migration and extirpation fuel climate change risk in a forest tree species," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 166-171, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00968-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00968-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Marková & Hayley C. Lanier & Marco A. Escalante & Marcos O. R. Cruz & Michaela Horníková & Mateusz Konczal & Lawrence J. Weider & Jeremy B. Searle & Petr Kotlík, 2023. "Local adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Yupeng Sang & Zhiqin Long & Xuming Dan & Jiajun Feng & Tingting Shi & Changfu Jia & Xinxin Zhang & Qiang Lai & Guanglei Yang & Hongying Zhang & Xiaoting Xu & Huanhuan Liu & Yuanzhong Jiang & Pär K. In, 2022. "Genomic insights into local adaptation and future climate-induced vulnerability of a keystone forest tree in East Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Hirzi Luqman & Daniel Wegmann & Simone Fior & Alex Widmer, 2023. "Climate-induced range shifts drive adaptive response via spatio-temporal sieving of alleles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.

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