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Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Geiger

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association
    Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Climate and Environment Consultancy)

  • Johannes Gütschow

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • David N. Bresch

    (Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich
    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Katja Frieler

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association)

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are expected to worsen under continued global warming and socio-economic development. Here we combine TC simulations with an impact model to quantify country-level population exposure to TC winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions. We estimate an annual global TC exposure increase of 26% (33 million people) for a 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, assuming present-day population. The timing of warming matters when additionally accounting for population change, with global population projected to peak around mid-century and decline thereafter. A middle-of-the-road socio-economic scenario combined with 2 °C of warming around 2050 increases exposure by 41% (52 million). A stronger mitigation scenario reaching 2 °C around 2100 limits this increase to 20% (25 million). Rapid climate action therefore avoids interference with peak global population timing and limits climate-change-driven exposure. Cumulatively, over 1.8 billion people could be saved by 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Geiger & Johannes Gütschow & David N. Bresch & Kerry Emanuel & Katja Frieler, 2021. "Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(10), pages 861-866, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01157-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01157-9
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    Cited by:

    1. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Lee, C.W., 2022. "Characterizing coastal wind energy resources based on sodar and microwave radiometer observations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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