IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v10y2020i1d10.1038_s41558-019-0647-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat

Author

Listed:
  • Toni Lyn Morelli

    (US Geological Survey, Department of Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
    University of Massachusetts)

  • Adam B. Smith

    (Missouri Botanical Garden)

  • Amanda N. Mancini

    (The Graduate Center of the City University of New York
    The New York Consortium in Evolutionary Primatology)

  • Elizabeth A. Balko

    (SUNY Oswego
    Cornell University)

  • Cortni Borgerson

    (Montclair State University
    Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY))

  • Rainer Dolch

    (Association Mitsinjo)

  • Zachary Farris

    (Appalachian State University)

  • Sarah Federman

    (Yale University)

  • Christopher D. Golden

    (Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY)
    Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Sheila M. Holmes

    (University of Calgary)

  • Mitchell Irwin

    (Northern Illinois University)

  • Rachel L. Jacobs

    (The George Washington University
    US Fish and Wildlife Service, National Fish and Wildlife Forensics Laboratory)

  • Steig Johnson

    (University of Calgary)

  • Tony King

    (The Aspinall Foundation
    The Aspinall Foundation, Port Lympne Reserve)

  • Shawn M. Lehman

    (University of Toronto)

  • Edward E. Louis

    (Omaha’s Henry Doorly Zoo and Aquarium)

  • Asia Murphy

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Hery N. T. Randriahaingo

    (The Aspinall Foundation)

  • H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana

    (The Aspinall Foundation)

  • Jonah Ratsimbazafy

    (Groupe d’Etude et de recherche sur les Primates de Madagascar)

  • Onja H. Razafindratsima

    (South Dakota State University)

  • Andrea L. Baden

    (The Graduate Center of the City University of New York
    The New York Consortium in Evolutionary Primatology
    Hunter College of the City University of New York)

Abstract

Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.

Suggested Citation

  • Toni Lyn Morelli & Adam B. Smith & Amanda N. Mancini & Elizabeth A. Balko & Cortni Borgerson & Rainer Dolch & Zachary Farris & Sarah Federman & Christopher D. Golden & Sheila M. Holmes & Mitchell Irwi, 2020. "The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 89-96, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0647-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0647-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sillero, Neftalí & Campos, João Carlos & Arenas-Castro, Salvador & Barbosa, A.Márcia, 2023. "A curated list of R packages for ecological niche modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0647-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.