Growth models, family demography, standing welfare commitment and social investment reform

This contribution explores two queries: a theoretical probe and an empiricalinference. First, there is the acknowledgement that the growth model literature,being substantive in orientation, allows for a fruitful intellectual engagement with comparativewelfare research. Especially welcome is the effort of bringing macroeconomicdemand and the redistributive struggles behind macro-economic management backinto the welfare-work equation. Surprisingly, however, the growth-regime literature issilent on the macroeconomic importance of family demography. For the argument’ssake, an alternative conjecture is envisioned. On this score, the fiscal weight of standingwelfare commitments conjures up a «productive constraint» for social investmentwelfare reform, potentially affecting growth strategies in path-shifting ways across awidening number of EU number welfare democracies, not merely the Nordics. Finally,from the perspective of 21st century welfare provision in a knowledge economy foran ageing society, I would reframe the nostalgic lament of low growth and secularstagnation in terms of the question of «how much» growth advanced capitalistdemocracies actually need to sustain inclusive welfare states? Two percent will do.