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Keynes's uncertainty is not about white or black swans

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  • Andrea Terzi

Abstract

How does Nassim Taleb's notion of uncertainty compare with Keynes's? In describing "black swan events" as rare, consequential, unforecastable events, Taleb has stressed how statistical risk differs from intractable uncertainty. This difference had been similarly underscored by Keynes in his theory of behavior in a monetary economy. Yet beyond this apparent similarity, Taleb's and Keynes's views of uncertainty are opposite with respect to both method and consequences. This paper claims that even Taleb's black swan argument may face its own "black swan" when it is found that his conclusions do not hold under the more extreme assumption of ontological uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Terzi, 2010. "Keynes's uncertainty is not about white or black swans," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 559-566, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:559-566
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    2. Stefan Voss, 2012. "When Keynes and Minsky meet Mandelbrot . . ," Chapters, in: Jesper Jespersen & Mogens Ove Madsen (ed.), Keynes’s General Theory for Today, chapter 7, pages 113-130, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Richard Senner & Didier Sornette, 2019. "The Holy Grail of Crypto Currencies: Ready to Replace Fiat Money?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 966-1000, October.
    4. Özgür Orhangazi, 2011. "“Financial” vs. “Real”: An Overview of the Contradictory Role of Finance," Research in Political Economy, in: Revitalizing Marxist Theory for Today's Capitalism, pages 121-148, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Ricardo Crespo & Daniel Heymann & Pablo Schiaffino, 2015. "Dealing with uncertainty evolving beliefs, rationalizations & the origins of economic crises," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2015-8, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).

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