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Interest parity, purchasing power parity, "risk premia," and Post Keynesian economic analysis

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  • John Smithin

Abstract

This paper explores the implications for open economy macroeconomic analysis of the "cambist" approach to the forward exchanges, put forward by Lavoie (2000) and others. It argues that logically the counterpart to the rejection of any domestic natural rate of interest must also be the rejection of the idea that the real exchange rate is primarily determined by nonmonetary factors such as the supposedly immutable barter terms of trade. The real exchange rate is an endogenous monetary variable and is therefore subject in principle to manipulation by public policy. Much depends on the nature and determinants of the currency risk premium, in an environment in which separate monetary systems in different economies continue to exist, and which is characterized by imperfect asset substitutability, whether or not there is also perfect capital mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • John Smithin, 2002. "Interest parity, purchasing power parity, "risk premia," and Post Keynesian economic analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 219-235.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:219-235 DOI: 10.1080/01603477.2002.11051355
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John T. Harvey, 1996. "Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: A Survey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 567-583, July.
    2. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    3. repec:mes:jeciss:v:31:y:1997:i:2:p:615-622 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
    5. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
    6. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.

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