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Understanding the Recent Growth in Consumer Loans and Credit Cards in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Murat Mazibaş
  • Yusuf Tuna

Abstract

In recent years, the surge in household indebtedness to historical heights has become a significant concern for developed economies. A similar trend has been witnessed in emerging market countries including Turkey. Our objective is to help further understand the dynamics of the recent growth in consumer loans and credit cards (CLCC) in Turkey. For this purpose, we investigate the long-term equilibrating relationships and short-term deviations from the equilibrium, and explore the determinants, directions, and strengths of causality relationships between CLCC and the selected macroeconomic variables, and analyze the dynamic interactions among the variables in the post-sample period by analyzing how CLCC responds to the shocks given to other macroeconomic variables and the contribution of each variable on the forecast variability of CLCC. We use monthly data for the period of January 2004—December 2013 of seven macroeconomic variables of money supply, interest rate, income, consumer confidence, inflation, stock market, and consumer goods imports. On empirical findings, we make suggestions about which policy tools should be used to influence, and if necessary to manage, the growth in CLCC.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Mazibaş & Yusuf Tuna, 2017. "Understanding the Recent Growth in Consumer Loans and Credit Cards in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(10), pages 2333-2346, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:10:p:2333-2346
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1196895
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Hyeongjun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "An empirical study on credit card loan delinquency," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 437-449.
    2. Nur Annisa Hasniawati & Eva R. Lase & Akhis R. Hutabarat, 2020. "Indonesian Household Payment Choice: A Nested Logit Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 291-313.
    3. Cesar Leandro, Julio & Botelho, Delane, 2022. "Consumer over-indebtedness: A review and future research agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 535-551.
    4. Jale Minibas-Poussard & Haluk Baran Bingöl & Christine Roland-Levy & Erkin Diyarbakirlioglu & Tutku Seckin-Celik, 2020. "Money, banks, and savings: A comparative analysis of Turkish laypeople's social representations over five periods (1999-2017)," Post-Print hal-02919362, HAL.

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