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Inflation Dynamics and an Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve for China

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  • Chengsi Zhang

Abstract

This paper shows that the error term in the stylized New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) model for China is significantly serially correlated. We propose an extended NKPC model for China, which can be easily rationalized in terms of sticky-price setting of backward-looking firms. Empirical results show that further lags of inflation are needed in the hybrid specification of the NKPC in order to rule out serial correlation; forward-looking behavior has a relatively larger impact on inflation dynamics than backward-looking behavior; and conventional output measures remain valid inflation forces in the extended model. Open economy augmentations, nevertheless, indicate that neither exchange rate nor import prices exert a significant impact on inflation in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chengsi Zhang, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and an Extended New Keynesian Phillips Curve for China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 82-98, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:49:y:2013:i:5:p:82-98
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chi Wei Su & Heng-Guo Zhang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Rui Nian, 2016. "Is exchange rate stability beneficial for stabilizing consumer prices in China?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 857-879, September.
    2. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2024. "Regional heterogeneity and the provincial Phillips curve in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1036-1044.
    4. Selen Başer Andiç & Hande Küçük & Fethi Öğünç, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(2), pages 418-431, March.

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