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China's Impact on Intra-African Trade

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  • Letizia Montinari
  • Giorgio Prodi

Abstract

The role of China as a trading partner of sub-Saharan Africa is assessed using data on bilateral trade from the International Monetary Fund (1999-2007) and a gravity model. Trade with China is found to affect the intra-African market in different ways at different levels of China-Africa exports. Interaction variables are used to disentangle two opposite patterns: sub-Saharan Africa's exports to China have a negative effect on intra-African trade at higher levels of the trade between China and sub-Saharan Africa and a positive effect at lower levels. Oil-exporting countries, China's biggest African trading partners, tend to isolate themselves from the internal African market as their exports to China increase. Conversely, a rise in exports to China from non-oil-exporting countries increases intra-African trade, probably due to a wealth effect. Intra-African market performance is briefly analyzed as a robustness check on the data. The results are interesting, especially those concerning the differences in trade determinants between oil-exporting and non-oil-exporting sub-Saharan countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Letizia Montinari & Giorgio Prodi, 2011. "China's Impact on Intra-African Trade," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 75-91, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:chinec:v:44:y:2011:i:4:p:75-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2023. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited: The Case of the East African Community," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(6), pages 4-32, November.
    2. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.

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