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On the Asymmetric U-Shaped Relationship between Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Relative Price Skewness in the UK

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  • KAUSIK CHAUDHURI
  • MATTHEW GREENWOOD-NIMMO
  • MINJOO KIM
  • YONGCHEOL SHIN

Abstract

We investigate the asymmetric relationships between aggregate inflation and the second and third moments of the cross‐sectional distribution of relative prices using a modified Calvo pricing model with regime‐dependent price rigidities. Calibration experiments reveal that the inflation‐standard deviation and inflation‐skewness relationships exhibit U‐shaped asymmetries around the historical mean inflation rate. UK sectoral data support our results. We conclude that monetary policy should target an inflation rate proximate to the (common) minima of these nonlinear relationships and that core inflation measures should not be used for policy purposes as they exclude much of the information contained in the higher moments.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kausik Chaudhuri & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Minjoo Kim & Yongcheol Shin, 2013. "On the Asymmetric U-Shaped Relationship between Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Relative Price Skewness in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1431-1449, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i:7:p:1431-1449
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    2. David Fielding & Christopher Hajzler & James (Jim) C. MacGee, 2017. "Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries," Staff Working Papers 17-3, Bank of Canada.
    3. Patrick Augustin & Roméo Tédongap, 2021. "Disappointment Aversion, Term Structure, and Predictability Puzzles in Bond Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(10), pages 6266-6293, October.

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