Conditional Time-Varying Interest Rate Risk Premium: Evidence from the Treasury Bill Futures Market
Existing studies of the term structure of interest rates often use spot Treasury rates to represent default-free interest rates. However, part of the premium in Treasury rates is compensation for the risk that short-sellers may default. Since Treasury bill futures are default-free, they provide cleaner data to estimate the interest rate risk premium. The mean excess return in default-free Treasury bill futures is zero. This suggests that the interest rate risk premium could be economically negligible. We find that although the mean unconditional premium is zero, futures returns contain economically and statistically significant time-varying conditional interest rate risk premiums. The conditional premium depends significantly positively on its own conditional variance and its conditional covariance with the equity premium. The conditional premium is large in the volatile 1979-82 period, but small afterwards.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:679-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.