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Demografie und Wachstum: Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte einer höheren Erwerbstätigkeit Älterer

Author

Listed:
  • Bachmann Ronald

    (RWI, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen und IZA, Institut für die Zukunft der Arbeit, Bonn)

  • Braun Sebastian

    (Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Hindenburgufer 66, 24105 Kiel)

  • Friedl Andreas
  • Groll Dominik

    (IfW, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel)

  • Giesecke Matthias

    (RGS Econ, Ruhr Graduate School in Economics und Universität Duisburg- Essen)

  • Kramer Anica
  • Paloyo Alfredo

    (RWI, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Essen)

  • Sachs Andreas

    (ZEW, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim)

Abstract

This paper quantifies the effects of increased employment of elderly persons on the growth potential of the German economy until 2030. Starting from an analysis of the labour market situation of elderly persons today, we construct nine scenarios for the future development of the employment level of the elderly. These scenarios differ in participation rates, unemployment rates, and hours worked of the elderly. For each scenario, we then calculate the corresponding production potential of the German economy and percapita income levels. The difference in per-capita income in 2030 between the scenarios with the highest and lowest employment level is 10 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann Ronald & Braun Sebastian & Friedl Andreas & Groll Dominik & Giesecke Matthias & Kramer Anica & Paloyo Alfredo & Sachs Andreas, 2013. "Demografie und Wachstum: Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte einer höheren Erwerbstätigkeit Älterer," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 62(3), pages 287-310, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:62:y:2013:i:3:p:287-310
    DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2013-0307
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2016 - Potenzialwachstum überschreitet Zenit," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Martin Beznoska & Tobias Hentze, 2017. "Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 71-84.
    3. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2018 - Wachstum lässt nach: Konjunktur kühlt ab," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2017 - Gesamtwirtschaftliche Überauslastung nimmt zu," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Herbst 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft durchläuft Hochkonjunktur," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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