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Ecuadorian Flower Exports And Their Seasonality: An Econometric Analysis Using Garch Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Hólguer Rodrigo Altamirano Pérez

    (Universidad Central del Ecuador, Ecuador)

  • Máximo Ortega Galarza

    (Universidad Central del Ecuador, Ecuador)

  • Verónica Gabriela Páez Romero

    (Instituto Tecnológico Universitario Bernardo O’Higgins, Conservatorio Superior Nacional de Música, Quito, Ecuador)

Abstract

Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed approach and quantitative approach to a total of 259 monthly data from January 2000 to July 2022. For this study, the Box - Jenkins or seasonal ARIMA time series methodology known as SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) was used with the Eviews 9 program. The results showed that the application of a GARCH model to a seasonal model was adequate to forecast five out-of-sample data after generating a first difference to the original model because it was not stationary, the peak export months are February, March, and May, respectively; the first because there is a significant boom every year as a result of the fact that in this month the day of love and friendship is celebrated and orders worldwide multiply, and the third for Mother’s Day

Suggested Citation

  • Hólguer Rodrigo Altamirano Pérez & Máximo Ortega Galarza & Verónica Gabriela Páez Romero, 2025. "Ecuadorian Flower Exports And Their Seasonality: An Econometric Analysis Using Garch Modeling," Revista Ciencias Administrativas (CADM), IIA, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Instituto de Investigaciones Administrativas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, issue 25, pages 1-17, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:lap:recadm:206
    DOI: 10.24215/23143738e153
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometrics; Ecuador; exports; natural flowers; seasonality; SARIMA model; GARCH model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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