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Noticias y tensiones cambiarias en Argentina

Author

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  • Fernando Toledo, Leonardo Caravaggio

    (Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina; Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires, Argentina)

Abstract

We study the association between the nominal exchange rate and the dissemination of macroeconomic news in Argentina through the estimation of a VARX-GARCH(1,1) model. Our main empirical results show that: 1) The transmission of adverse financial shocks occurs mostly from the United States and operates via the spread of interest rates (EMBI+ for Argentina); 2) The news compiled from local and foreign newspapers do not generate relevant economic effects to explain the dynamics of the nominal exchangerate; and 3) The conditional volatility of shocks associated with the endogenous variables of the VARX model can be formalized through a GARCH(1,1) specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Toledo, Leonardo Caravaggio, 2020. "Noticias y tensiones cambiarias en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 66, pages 57-81, January-D.
  • Handle: RePEc:lap:journl:623
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    File URL: https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/Economica/article/view/7586/10122
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nominal Exchange Rates; News; Negative External Financial Shocks Transmission; BEKK models; VAR-GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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