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Währungsunionen, Wechselkursregime und deren Effekte auf bilateralen Handel: drei empirische Ergebnisse

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Abstract

This article summarizes three empirical findings about currency unions, fixed currency regimes, and bilateral trade. According to Result 1, the short-run trade effects from switching into a new exchange rate regime are heterogeneous over country-pairs and an immediately positive effect is not generally the case. This result is derived in Dorn and Egger (2015). According to Result 2 it takes approximately eight years of staying within a fixed currency regime until a significantly positive cumulative effect occurs. This empirical finding is derived in Dorn and Egger (2013). Result 3 is concerned with an empirical analysis of the determinants of fixed currency regimes or currency regimes in general, and states that known theoretical models are not capable of explaining the empirical data sufficiently well. This is based on Dorn (2015).

Suggested Citation

  • Sabrina Dorn, 2015. "Währungsunionen, Wechselkursregime und deren Effekte auf bilateralen Handel: drei empirische Ergebnisse," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 9(2), pages 43-51, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:9:y:2015:i:2:p:43-51
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; Bilateral trade; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Stratified matching; Random Forests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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