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Aufhebung Mindestkurs: Rosskur für Schweizer Wirtschaft

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Abstract

This text presents the economic forecast released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich on 26 March 2015. After an introduction describing the starting points and crucial assumptions underlying the forecast, we summarise the key results for Switzerland. Then we turn to the international economy and its effects on Switzerland and look into the Swiss economy in more detail. For the latter, we forecast the main demand components of GDP as well as important macroeconomic prices and figures, such as employment and unemployment, the price level and the exchange rate. For the 2015-2016 period covered by this forecast, we expect a recession stretching over the first three quarters of 2015. After this, the Swiss economy is expected to recover relatively swiftly.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Yngve Abrahamsen & Florian Chatagny & Andreas Dibiasi & Dirk Drechsel & Michael Graff & Florian Hälg & Günther Greulich & Jochen Hartwig & David Iselin & Heiner Mikosch & Stefan Neuwi, 2015. "Aufhebung Mindestkurs: Rosskur für Schweizer Wirtschaft," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 9(1), pages 1-78, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:9:y:2015:i:1:p:1-78
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    Keywords

    Switzerland; business cycle; macroeconomic forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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