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An Experimental Evaluation of the Descriptive Validity of Lottery-Dependent Utility Theory

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  • Daniels, Richard L
  • Keller, L Robin

Abstract

This article compares the performance of the expected utility (EU) and lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) models in predicting the actual choices of experimental subjects among risky options. In the process, we present two approaches for calibrating the LDEU model for an individual decisionmaker. The results indicate that while LDEU exhibits a higher potential for correctly predicting choice, the version of the model calibrated by indifference judgments does not outperform EU. We suggest a functional form for the parametric functions that defines the LDEU model, and discuss ways in which this function can be incorporated into choice-based assessment approaches to improve predictions. Copyright 1990 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Daniels, Richard L & Keller, L Robin, 1990. "An Experimental Evaluation of the Descriptive Validity of Lottery-Dependent Utility Theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 115-134, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:3:y:1990:i:2:p:115-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehrez, Abraham, 1997. "The interface between OR/MS and decision theory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 38-47, May.
    2. Daniel Cavagnaro & Mark Pitt & Richard Gonzalez & Jay Myung, 2013. "Discriminating among probability weighting functions using adaptive design optimization," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 255-289, December.
    3. Syngjoo Choi & Raymond Fisman & Douglas Gale & Shachar Kariv, 2007. "Consistency and Heterogeneity of Individual Behavior under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1921-1938, December.
    4. Syngjoo Choi & Raymond Fisman & Douglas Gale & Shachar Kariv, 2007. "Substantive and Procedural Rationality in Decisions under Uncertainty," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000946, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Cheng-Min Feng & Chao-Chung Kang & Haider Ali Khan, 2002. "On Modelling Negotiations within a Dynamic Multi-objective Programming Framework: Analysis of Risk Measurement with an Application to Large BOT Projects," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-161, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.

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