IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v70y2025i4d10.1007_s11146-023-09941-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Local is the Crime Effect on House Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Paula Margaretic

    (Universidad de San Andrés
    Universidad Adolfo Ibañez)

  • Juan Bautista Sosa

    (Universidad de San Andrés)

Abstract

We exploit the local variations crime across time to measure the effect of local crime on house prices. We have access to a very granular micro-dataset consisting of real estate listings for sale in Buenos Aires City, Mexico City and São Paulo. We follow an IV procedure and instrument local crime with the homicide rate. We find that our IV estimates for local crime are greater than their corresponding pseudo-panel linear model coefficient estimates. Second, we show that the direct crime elasticity to house prices is robust to varying sizes of the regular polygons. However, the spillover effects of crime on house prices fade away when the size of the polygons is sufficiently large.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Margaretic & Juan Bautista Sosa, 2025. "How Local is the Crime Effect on House Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 754-793, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:70:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-023-09941-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-023-09941-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-023-09941-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-023-09941-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David McIlhatton & William McGreal & Paloma Taltavul de la Paz & Alastair Adair, 2016. "Impact of crime on spatial analysis of house prices: evidence from a UK city," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 627-647, October.
    2. Rosa M. R. Massena & Kaizô I. Beltrão & David M. Vetter, 2013. "The Impact of the Sense of Security from Crime on Residential Property Values in Brazilian Metropolitan Areas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 82165, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Stephen Gibbons & Henry G. Overman, 2012. "Mostly Pointless Spatial Econometrics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 172-191, May.
    4. Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2021. "COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(1), pages 32-39, January.
    5. Nicolas Debarsy & James P. LeSage, 2022. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Autoregressive Models Based on Convex Combinations of Different Types of Connectivity Matrices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 547-558, April.
    6. Hector M. Nuñez & Dusan Paredes & Rafael Garduño-Rivera, 2017. "Is crime in Mexico a disamenity? Evidence from a hedonic valuation approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(1), pages 171-187, July.
    7. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Jean‐Michel Etienne, 2015. "Hedonic Housing Prices in Paris: An Unbalanced Spatial Lag Pseudo‐Panel Model with Nested Random Effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 509-528, April.
    8. Bernard Fingleton & Julie Le Gallo, 2008. "Estimating spatial models with endogenous variables, a spatial lag and spatially dependent disturbances: Finite sample properties," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(3), pages 319-339, August.
    9. Arthur Acolin & Rebecca J. Walter & Marie Skubak Tillyer & Johanna Lacoe & Raphael Bostic, 2022. "Spatial spillover effects of crime on private investment at nearby micro-places," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(4), pages 834-850, March.
    10. repec:eme:ijhma0:ijhma-10-2015-0065 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jesus Mur & Marcos Herrera & Manuel Ruiz, 2011. "Selecting the W Matrix. Parametric vs Nonparametric Approaches," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1055, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Hakim, Simon & Buck, Andrew J., 1989. "Do casinos enhance crime?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 409-416.
    13. Can, Ayse, 1992. "Specification and estimation of hedonic housing price models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 453-474, September.
    14. Arguea, Nestor M. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1993. "Econometric issues of estimating hedonic price functions : With an application to the U.S. market for automobiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 243-267, March.
    15. Nils Braakmann, 2017. "The link between crime risk and property prices in England and Wales: Evidence from street-level data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(8), pages 1990-2007, June.
    16. Joachim Zietz & Emily Zietz & G. Sirmans, 2008. "Determinants of House Prices: A Quantile Regression Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 317-333, November.
    17. Steve Gibbons, 2004. "The Costs of Urban Property Crime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(499), pages 441-463, November.
    18. Leigh Linden & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2008. "Estimates of the Impact of Crime Risk on Property Values from Megan's Laws," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1103-1127, June.
    19. Julie Le Gallo & Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Estimating spatial models with endogenous variables, a spatial lag and spatially dependent disturbances : finite sample properties," Post-Print hal-00485035, HAL.
    20. Pope, Jaren C., 2008. "Fear of crime and housing prices: Household reactions to sex offender registries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 601-614, November.
    21. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    22. Debarsy, Nicolas & LeSage, James, 2018. "Flexible dependence modeling using convex combinations of different types of connectivity structures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-68.
    23. David M. Vetter & Kaizô I. Beltrão & Rosa M. R. Massena, 2013. "The Impact of the Sense of Security from Crime on Residential Property Values in Brazilian Metropolitan Areas," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-415, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    24. Dubin, Robin A., 1992. "Spatial autocorrelation and neighborhood quality," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-452, September.
    25. Debarsy, Nicolas & LeSage, James, 2018. "Flexible dependence modeling using convex combinations of different types of connectivity structures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 48-68.
    26. John Adams & Darren Hayunga & Sattar Mansi & David Reeb & Vincenzo Verardi, 2019. "Identifying and treating outliers in finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(2), pages 345-384, June.
    27. Ihlanfeldt, Keith & Mayock, Tom, 2010. "Panel data estimates of the effects of different types of crime on housing prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2-3), pages 161-172, May.
    28. David McIlhatton & William McGreal & Paloma Taltavul de la Paz & Alastair Adair, 2016. "Impact of crime on spatial analysis of house prices: evidence from a UK city," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 627-647, October.
    29. Pope, Devin G. & Pope, Jaren C., 2012. "Crime and property values: Evidence from the 1990s crime drop," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 177-188.
    30. Bernard Fingleton, 2008. "Housing Supply, Housing Demand, and Affordability," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1545-1563, July.
    31. Halvorsen, Robert & Pollakowski, Henry O., 1981. "Choice of functional form for hedonic price equations," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 37-49, July.
    32. Paolo Buonanno & Daniel Montolio & Josep Raya-Vílchez, 2013. "Housing prices and crime perception," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 305-321, August.
    33. Massena, Rosa M. R. & BeltraÞo, Kaizô I. & Vetter, David M., 2013. "The Impact of the Sense of Security from Crime on Residential Property Values in Brazilian Metropolitan Areas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4616, Inter-American Development Bank.
    34. Robin Dubin & Kelley Pace & Thomas Thibodeau, 1999. "Spatial Autoregression Techniques for Real Estate Data," Journal of Real Estate Literature, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 79-95, January.
    35. Ralph B. Taylor, 1995. "The Impact of Crime on Communities," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 539(1), pages 28-45, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Solmaria Halleck Vega & J. Paul Elhorst, 2015. "The Slx Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 339-363, June.
    2. Gabriel S. Lee & Stefanie Braun, 2021. "Agglomeration Spillover Effects in German Land and House Prices at the City and County Levels," Working Papers 207, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Jean‐Michel Etienne, 2015. "Hedonic Housing Prices in Paris: An Unbalanced Spatial Lag Pseudo‐Panel Model with Nested Random Effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 509-528, April.
    4. Muñoz-Morales, Juan & Singh, Ruchi, 2023. "Do school shootings erode property values?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Anastasia Klimova & Adrian D. Lee, 2014. "Does a Nearby Murder Affect Housing Prices and Rents? The Case of Sydney," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90, pages 16-40, June.
    6. Sloan, CarlyWill & Caudill, Steven B. & Mixon, Franklin G., 2016. "Entrepreneurship and crime: The case of new restaurant location decisions," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 19-26.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges, 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation and Lagrange multiplier tests for panel seemingly unrelated regressions with spatial lag and spatial errors: An application to hedonic housing prices in Paris," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 24-42, January.
    8. Arthur Acolin & Rebecca J. Walter & Marie Skubak Tillyer & Johanna Lacoe & Raphael Bostic, 2022. "Spatial spillover effects of crime on private investment at nearby micro-places," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(4), pages 834-850, March.
    9. Dentler, Alexander & Rossi, Enzo, 2024. "Residents’ willingness to pay to avoid crime," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Woei-Chyuan Wong & Adilah Azhari & Nur Adiana Hiau Abdullah & Chee Yin Yip, 2019. "Estimating the impact of crime risk on housing prices in Malaysia," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 769-789, November.
    11. Francesca M. Calamunci & Livio Ferrante & Rossana Scebba, 2022. "Closed for mafia: Evidence from the removal of mafia firms on commercial property values," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1487-1511, November.
    12. Yunlong Gong & Jan de Haan & Peter Boelhouwer, 2020. "Cross‐city spillovers in Chinese housing markets: From a city network perspective," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1065-1085, August.
    13. Melek Cigdem‐Bayram & David Prentice, 2019. "How Do Crime Rates Affect Property Prices?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 95(S1), pages 30-38, June.
    14. Abebe Hailemariam & Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Russell Smyth & Kingsley Tetteh Baako, 2021. "Income inequality and housing prices in the very long‐run," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 295-321, July.
    15. Hua, Nan & Yang, Yang, 2017. "Systematic effects of crime on hotel operating performance," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 257-269.
    16. Congdon-Hohman, Joshua M., 2013. "The lasting effects of crime: The relationship of discovered methamphetamine laboratories and home values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 31-41.
    17. Aakrit Joshi & Brady P. Horn & Robert P. Berrens, 2024. "Contemporary differences in residential housing values along historic redlining boundaries," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 514-551, March.
    18. Phillips, David C. & Sandler, Danielle, 2015. "Does public transit spread crime? Evidence from temporary rail station closures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 13-26.
    19. Riccardo Novaro & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2022. "Does money laundering inflate residential house prices? Evidence from the Italian provincial markets," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 672-691, November.
    20. Kuang, Chun, 2017. "Does quality matter in local consumption amenities? An empirical investigation with Yelp," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-18.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:70:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-023-09941-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.