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Property and Inflation: The Hedging Characteristics of U.K. Commercial Property, 1967-1994

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  • Barber, Colin
  • Robertson, Donald
  • Scott, Andrew

Abstract

This paper examines the statistical similarities between U.K. commercial property capital and rental values and the price level. Our aim is to determine whether commercial property is an inflation hedge and, if so, what type of inflation it hedges against. To answer these questions, we use both a multivariate unobserved components model and structural vector autoregressions. We find that commercial property is an inflation hedge but only a weak one. More specifically, we find that property offers some form of partial hedge against changes in the underlying inflation rate but not to either temporary or permanent changes to the price level. We also find that capital values offer a stronger hedge than rental values and that industrial and retail property account for most of this hedging capacity. We find no evidence that property responds differently to high or low inflation but we do find capital and rental values respond more to unexpected inflation than anticipated price changes. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Barber, Colin & Robertson, Donald & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Property and Inflation: The Hedging Characteristics of U.K. Commercial Property, 1967-1994," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 59-76, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:59-76
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary John Rangel & Jason Wei Jian Ng, 2017. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Singapore Private Residential Prices: A Markov-Switching Approach," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 15-31.
    2. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0040, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

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