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The Impact of Delivery Risk on Optimal Productionand Futures Hedging

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  • Axel F.A. Adam-Miller

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  • Kit Pont Wong

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Abstract

Multiple delivery specifications exist on nearly all commodity futures contracts. Sellers are typically allowed to choose among several grades of the underlying commodity. On the delivery day, the futures price converges to the spot price of the cheapest-to-deliver grade rather than to that of the par-delivery grade of the commodity, thereby imposing an additional delivery risk on hedgers. This paper derives the optimal production and futures hedging strategy for a risk-averse competitive firm facing delivery risk. We show that the option value of the multiple delivery specification induces the firm to produce more with than without the delivery risk if the firm gauges this value higher than the market. We further show that if the delivery risk is additively related to the commodity price risk, the firm optimally under-hedges its risk exposure. On the other hand, if the delivery risk is multiplicatively related to the commodity price risk, the firm may optimally choose an under- or over-hedge which we illustrate using a numerical example.

Suggested Citation

  • Axel F.A. Adam-Miller & Kit Pont Wong, 2003. "The Impact of Delivery Risk on Optimal Productionand Futures Hedging," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 459-477.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:eurfin:v:7:y:2003:i:3:p:459-477
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    Cited by:

    1. Akron, Sagi & Benninga, Simon, 2013. "Production and hedging implications of executive compensation schemes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 119-139.
    2. Kit Wong, 2014. "Production and hedging in futures markets with multiple delivery specifications," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 413-421, October.
    3. Adam-Müller, Axel F.A. & Nolte, Ingmar, 2011. "Cross hedging under multiplicative basis risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2956-2964, November.
    4. Udo Broll & Peter Welzel & Kit Wong, 2015. "Futures hedging with basis risk and expectation dependence," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 62(3), pages 213-221, September.

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