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Forecasting Economies in Transition: The Case of Romania

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  • Hall, Stephen G
  • O'Sullivan, John

Abstract

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable 'true' economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Hall, Stephen G & O'Sullivan, John, 1994. "Forecasting Economies in Transition: The Case of Romania," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 175-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:27:y:1994:i:3:p:175-84
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    Cited by:

    1. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G., 1996. "Modelling economies subject to structural change: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-559, October.
    2. Claudio Morana, 2007. "Factor demand modelling: the theory and the practice," ICER Working Papers 9-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.

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