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Financial Markets Can Be at Sub-optimal Equilibria


  • Joshi, Shareen
  • Parker, Jeffrey
  • Bedau, Mark A


We use game theory and Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market, an agent-based model of an evolving stock market, to study the optimal frequency for traders to revise their market forecasting rules. We discover two things: There is a unique strategic Nash equilibrium in the game of choosing forecast revision rates, and this equilibrium is sub-optimal in the sense that traders' earnings are not maximized an the market is inefficient. This strategic equilibrium is due to an analogue of the prisoner's dilemma; the optimal global state is unstable because each trader has too much incentive to "defect" and use forecasting rules that pull the market into the sub-optimal equilibrium. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Joshi, Shareen & Parker, Jeffrey & Bedau, Mark A, 2002. "Financial Markets Can Be at Sub-optimal Equilibria," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 5-23, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:19:y:2002:i:1:p:5-23

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    Cited by:

    1. Norman Ehrentreich, 2002. "The Santa Fe Artificial Stock Market Re-Examined - Suggested Corrections," Computational Economics 0209001, EconWPA.

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