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Do guns cause crime? Does crime cause guns? A granger test


  • Lawrence Southwick


Sixteen time series measures of crime and deaths from guns are used along with 16 measures of sales and stocks of guns in the U.S. to test for causality using Granger Causality tests. Both per capita and link-relative measures are used. The results indicate that suicide appears to result from the presence of guns and gun accidents are reduced by familiarity with guns but generally neither murder nor other crimes are affected. It appears that more causal relationships are from crimes to gun ownership than from gun ownership to crimes. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence Southwick, 1997. "Do guns cause crime? Does crime cause guns? A granger test," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(3), pages 256-273, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:25:y:1997:i:3:p:256-273
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298408

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Robert Kaestner, 1994. "The Effect of Illicit Drug Use on the Labor Supply of Young Adults," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 29(1), pages 126-155.
    2. Mark Thornton, 2004. "Prohibition vs. Legalization: Do Economists Reach a Conclusion on Drug Policy?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 1(1), pages 82-105, April.
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    5. Frank J. Chaloupka & Michael Grossman & John A. Tauras, 1999. "The Demand for Cocaine and Marijuana by Youth," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Analysis of Substance Use and Abuse: An Integration of Econometrics and Behavioral Economic Research, pages 133-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrew M. Gill & Robert J. Michaels, 1992. "Does Drug Use Lower Wages?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 45(3), pages 419-434, April.
    7. Sickles, Robin & Taubman, Paul, 1991. "Who Uses Illegal Drugs?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 248-251, May.
    8. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    9. Kaestner, Robert, 1991. "The Effect of Illicit Drug Use on the Wages of Young Adults," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(4), pages 381-412, October.
    10. Hausman, Jerry A., 1983. "Specification and estimation of simultaneous equation models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 391-448 Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kleck, Gary, 2015. "The Impact of Gun Ownership Rates on Crime Rates: A Methodological Review of the Evidence," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 40-48.
    2. Kleck, Gary & Kovandzic, Tomislav & Schaffer, Mark E, 2005. "Gun Prevalence, Homicide Rates and Causality: A GMM Approach to Endogeneity Bias," CEPR Discussion Papers 5357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Carlisle E. Moody, 2010. "Firearms and Homicide," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 17 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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