Small-Area Population Estimation in Absorption Analysis
In spite of a recognized need for market analysis in real estate appraisal, little attention has been given to the development of a small-area population forecasting model. This paper presents a systematic and localized approach for forecasting population as an integral part of a real estate absorption analysis. The model includes capacity constraints developed from a tract-specific environmental inventory. Historical growth patterns are adjusted to reflect the potential for continued development within a designated submarket. Future demand is calculated from population growth that considers both historical levels of activity and potential for development. The combined approach provides a defensible basis for forecasting absorption.
Volume (Year): 6 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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