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Small-Area Population Estimation in Absorption Analysis



In spite of a recognized need for market analysis in real estate appraisal, little attention has been given to the development of a small-area population forecasting model. This paper presents a systematic and localized approach for forecasting population as an integral part of a real estate absorption analysis. The model includes capacity constraints developed from a tract-specific environmental inventory. Historical growth patterns are adjusted to reflect the potential for continued development within a designated submarket. Future demand is calculated from population growth that considers both historical levels of activity and potential for development. The combined approach provides a defensible basis for forecasting absorption.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles H. Heimsath, 1991. "Small-Area Population Estimation in Absorption Analysis," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 6(3), pages 315-326.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:6:n:3:1991:p:315-326

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    2. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    3. Angeloni, Ignazio, 1985. "The dynamic behavior of business loans and the prime rate : A comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 577-580, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


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