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The Long-Run Dynamics between Direct and Securitized Real Estate


  • Elias Oikarinen

    () (Turku School of Economics)

  • Martin Hoesli

    () (University of Geneva)

  • Camilo Serrano

    () (IAZI AG – CIFI SA)


This study presents evidence of cointegration between securitized (NAREIT) and direct (NCREIF) real estate total return indices. Since the two real estate indices are cointegrated with one another but not with the stock market, REITs and direct real estate are likely to have similar long-term diversification benefits in a stock portfolio. Only direct real estate is found to currently adjust towards the cointegrating relation, with NAREIT returns leading NCREIF returns. However, the results show evidence of the predictability of NAREIT returns during the 1980s. Additionally, a large and long-lasting deviation from the long-run relation between NAREIT and NCREIF is identified at the beginning of the “new REIT era†.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2011. "The Long-Run Dynamics between Direct and Securitized Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 33(1), pages 73-104.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:1:2011:p:73-104

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    Cited by:

    1. Escobari, Diego & Jafarinejad, Mohammad, 2016. "Date stamping bubbles in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-230.
    2. Maximilian Brauers & Matthias Thomas & Joachim Zietz, 2014. "Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 165-184, August.
    3. Kroencke, Tim A. & Schindler, Felix, 2012. "International diversification with securitized real estate and the veiling glare from currency risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1851-1866.
    4. Aekkachai NITTAYAGASETWAT & Jiroj BURANASIRI, 2016. "Performance Comparison Between Real Estate Securities and Real Estate Investment Using Stochastic Dominance and Mean-Variance Analysis," International Conference on Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Spiru Haret University, vol. 3(1), pages 208-219, October.
    5. Martin Hoesli & Elias Oikarinen, 2011. "Are Reits Real Estate? Evidence from Sector Level Data," ERES eres2011_221, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    6. Hui-Na Lin & Wo-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Threshold Effects in the Relationships of REITs and Other Financial Securities in Developed Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(3), pages 426-438, March.
    7. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9646-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    9. repec:eee:jbfina:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:118-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.
    11. William Mingyan Cheung & James Chicheong Lei & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "Does Property Transaction Matter in the Price Discovery of Real Estate Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 27-49.
    12. Elias Oikarinen & Martin Hoesli & Camilo Serrano, 2013. "Do Public Real Estate Returns Really Lead Private Returns?," ERES eres2013_145, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    13. Jing Liu & Geoffrey Loudon & George Milunovich, 2012. "Linkages between international REITs: the role of economic factors," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(5), pages 473-492, August.
    14. repec:eee:mulfin:v:42-43:y:2017:i::p:132-151 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Martin Hoesli & Eva Liljeblom & Anders Loflund, 2014. "The Effect of Lock-Ups on the Suggested Real Estate Portfolio Weight," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Andrew Ang & Neil Nabar & Sam Wald, 2013. "Search for a Common Factor in Public and Private Real Estate Returns," NBER Working Papers 19194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. repec:kap:fmktpm:v:32:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11408-018-0312-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mingyan Cheung & Chicheong Lei, 2014. "Does Property Transaction Matter in Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets? Evidence from International Firm Level Data," ERES eres2014_195, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9601-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:ire:issued:v:20:n:03:2017:p:287-324 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Heidi Falkenbach & Jaakko Niskanen & Sami Kiehelä, 2013. "Development and performance of the public real estate investment sector in Finland," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 233-247, September.
    22. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2015. "Returns and Information Transmission Dynamics in Public and Private Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 163-208, March.
    23. Akinsomi, Omokolade & Coskun, Yener & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2018. "Is there convergence between the BRICS and International REIT Markets?," MPRA Paper 88756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Kim Hiang Liow & Felix Schindler, 2014. "An Assessment of the Relationship between Public Real Estate and Stock Markets at the Local, Regional, and Global Levels," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(2), pages 157-202.
    25. John Cotter & Richard Roll, 2015. "A Comparative Anatomy of Residential REITs and Private Real Estate Markets: Returns, Risks and Distributional Characteristics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 209-240, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


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